Dave's Best Picks

🏀 March 28 – Best Bets (Spread & Total)

Game	Vegas Spread	Model Spread	Spread Pick	🔥 Spread Conf.	Vegas Total	Model Total	Total Pick	🔥 Total Conf.
Ole Miss @ Michigan St	MSU -3.5	MSU -6.0	MSU -3.5	🔥🔥🔥🔥 (4/5)	144	138	Under 144	🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (5/5)
Kentucky @ Tennessee	TENN -4.5	TENN -7.5	TENN -4.5	🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (5/5)	144.5	139	Under 144.5	🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 (5/5)
Michigan @ Auburn	AUB -9	AUB -10.5	AUB -9	🔥🔥🔥 (3/5)	154	157	Over 154	🔥🔥🔥 (3/5)
Purdue @ Houston	HOU -8.5	HOU -9.5	HOU -8.5	🔥🔥🔥 (3/5)	131.5	128	Under 131.5	🔥🔥🔥🔥 (4/5)

✅ Model Picks Recap – March 28

Game	Model Pick	Result	✅/❌	Notes
Ole Miss @ Michigan St	MSU -3.5	❌ Ole Miss won outright	❌	MSU trailed early and never fully recovered — major upset
	Under 144	✅ Final: 69–61 = 130	✅	Crushed the total — model’s top total play cashed
Kentucky @ Tennessee	TENN -4.5	✅ Final: 78–65	✅	Clean cover — game broke open late, as projected
	Under 144.5	❌ Total = 143 at 1:00, but busted late FT run	❌	Unlucky finish — game was well Under until last minute
Michigan @ Auburn	AUB -9	✅ Final: 81–62	✅	Dominant win — Auburn covered with ease
	Over 154	❌ Final: 143	❌	Missed by 11 — game pace slowed in the second half
Purdue @ Houston	HOU -8.5	✅ Final: 70–60	✅	Model nailed the margin — exact 10-point win
	Under 131.5	✅ Final: 130	✅	Barely cashed — total landed just under the wire

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📊 Final Record:

• Spread Picks: ✅ 3 – ❌ 1
• Total Picks: ✅ 2 – ❌ 2
• Overall: 5–3 (63%)