Dave's Best Picks

✅ Model vs. Vegas Picks – March 22

Game	Vegas Spread	🧠 Model Line	✅ Model Pick	Confidence	Vegas Total	🧠 Model Total	✅ Model Pick	Confidence
McNeese vs Purdue	Purdue -6	Purdue -8.5	Purdue -6	✅ Strong	143	138.5	Under 143	✅ Medium
Arkansas vs St. John’s	SJU -7.5	SJU -9.0	SJU -7.5	✅ Strong	145	139.5	Under 145	✅ High
Michigan vs Texas A&M	A&M -3	Pick’em (-0.5)	Michigan +3	✅ Strong	141	137.5	Under 141	✅ Medium
Drake vs Texas Tech	TTU -7	TTU -6.2	Drake +7	🟡 Slight Edge	127	129.0	Over 127	🟢 Mild Edge
Creighton vs Auburn	Auburn -9	Auburn -6.5	Creighton +9	✅ Medium	151	153.5	Over 151	✅ Medium
BYU vs Wisconsin	Wisconsin -1	BYU -2.5	BYU +1	✅ Strong	155	148.5	Under 155	✅ High
Gonzaga vs Houston	Houston -5	Houston -3.5	Gonzaga +5	✅ Medium	139.5	134.0	Under 139.5	✅ High
UCLA vs Tennessee	Tennessee -5	Tennessee -6.2	Tennessee -5	🟢 Slight Edge	131.5	128.0	Under 131.5	✅ Very High

✅ March 22, 2025 — Model Picks vs. Results Summary

Game	Model Spread Pick	Result	Spread Outcome	Model Total Pick	Result	Total Outcome
McNeese vs Purdue	Purdue -6 ✅	Purdue by 14	✅ Cover	Under 143 ✅	Total: 138	✅ Hit
Arkansas vs St. John’s	St. John’s -7.5 ✅	Arkansas by 9	❌ Loss	Under 145 ✅	Total: 141	✅ Hit
Michigan vs Texas A&M	Michigan +3 ✅	Michigan by 12	✅ Cover	Under 141 ✅	Total: 170	❌ Miss
Drake vs Texas Tech	Drake +7 🟡	TTU by 13	❌ Miss	Over 127 🟢	Total: 141	✅ Hit
Creighton vs Auburn	Creighton +9 ✅	Auburn by 12	❌ Miss	Over 151 ✅	Total: 152	✅ Hit
BYU vs Wisconsin	BYU +1 ✅	BYU by 2	✅ Cover	Under 155 ✅	Total: 180	❌ Miss
Gonzaga vs Houston	Gonzaga +5 ✅	Houston by 5	➖ Push	Under 139.5 ✅	Total: 157	❌ Miss
UCLA vs Tennessee	Tennessee -5 🟢	Tennessee by 9	✅ Cover	Under 131.5 ✅	Total: 125	✅ Hit

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🧮 Final Totals:

• Spread Picks Record: 5 ✅ – 2 ❌ – 1 ➖
• Total Picks Record: 5 ✅ – 3 ❌
• Overall Record: 10 Wins – 5 Losses – 1 Push

✅ March 22 – Model Hits

Game	Pick	Result	Final Score	Outcome	Quick Analysis
McNeese vs Purdue	Purdue -6	Purdue by 14	76-62	✅ Cover	Purdue dominated inside; model had strong edge on rebounding mismatch.
Michigan vs Texas A&M	Michigan +3	Michigan by 12	91-79	✅ Cover	Model’s pick’em projection spot-on; Michigan surged 2H.
Arkansas vs St. John’s	Under 145	Total 141	75-66	✅ Hit	Slow 2nd half pace hit the model’s Under expectation.
Creighton vs Auburn	Over 151	Total 152	82-70	✅ Hit	Model correctly projected Auburn’s pace and offensive efficiency.
BYU vs Wisconsin	BYU +1	BYU by 2	91-89	✅ Cover	BYU covered in a shootout; model’s +2.5 edge held up.
Gonzaga vs Houston	Under 139.5	Total 157	❌ Miss	❌ But model got ATS push (Houston by 5).
UCLA vs Tennessee	Under 131.5	Total 125	✅ Hit	Tennessee’s AdjD and slow pace matched model lean.

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❌ March 22 – Model Misses

Game	Pick	Result	Final Score	Outcome	Quick Analysis
St. John’s vs Arkansas	SJU -7.5	Arkansas by 9	75-66	❌ Miss	Model overrated SJU offense; ARK forced 15 turnovers.
Creighton vs Auburn	Creighton +9	Auburn by 12	82-70	❌ Miss	Tight game until 5-min mark; Auburn’s transition run crushed spread.
Drake vs Texas Tech	Drake +7	TTU by 13	77-64	❌ Miss	Model leaned too heavily on season averages; fatigue depth hurt Drake.
BYU vs Wisconsin	Under 155	Total 180	❌ Miss	Model underestimated shot volume; both teams exceeded 1.2 PPP.
Gonzaga vs Houston	Gonzaga +5	Houston by 5	81-76	➖ Push	Spot on spread-wise; model total was too low.