Dave's Best Picks

✅ March 23, 2025 – Model vs. Vegas Picks

Game	Vegas Spread	🧠 Model Line	Pick	Confidence	Vegas Total	🧠 Model Total	Pick	Confidence
UConn vs Florida	Florida -9.5	Florida -5.5	UConn +9.5	✅ Strong	150.5	153.0	Over 150.5	✅ Medium
Baylor vs Duke	Duke -12	Duke -10	Baylor +12	✅ Medium	144.5	142.5	Under 144.5	✅ Slight
Illinois vs Kentucky	Illinois -2	Kentucky -1	Kentucky +2	✅ Strong	170	165.5	Under 170	✅ Strong
St. Mary’s vs Alabama	Alabama -5.5	Alabama -7	Alabama -5.5	✅ Medium	149.5	151.5	Over 149.5	✅ Slight
Colorado St vs Maryland	Maryland -7.5	Maryland -4	Colorado St +7.5	✅ Strong	143	141.0	Under 143	✅ Slight
Ole Miss vs Iowa St	Iowa St -5.5	Iowa St -6.5	Iowa St -5.5	✅ Medium	145.5	139.5	Under 145.5	✅ High
New Mexico vs Michigan St	Michigan St -7.5	Michigan St -6	New Mexico +7.5	✅ Medium	148.5	145.0	Under 148.5	✅ Medium
Oregon vs Arizona	Arizona -3.5	Arizona -1	Oregon +3.5	✅ Medium	152.5	150.0	Under 152.5	✅ Medium

✅ March 23 Model Picks vs. Results

Game	Model Spread Pick	Result	Spread W/L	Model Total Pick	Result	Total W/L
UConn vs Florida	UConn +9.5	❌ Florida 77–75	✅ Win (UConn covers)	Over 150.5	✅ 152 total	✅ Win
Baylor vs Duke	Baylor +12	❌ Duke 89–66	❌ Loss	Under 144.5	❌ 155 total	❌ Loss
Illinois vs Kentucky	Kentucky +2	✅ Kentucky 84–75	✅ Win	Under 170	✅ 159 total	✅ Win
St. Mary’s vs Alabama	Alabama -5.5	✅ Alabama 80–66	✅ Win	Over 149.5	❌ 146 total	❌ Loss
Colorado St vs Maryland	CSU +7.5	✅ Maryland 72–71	✅ Win	Under 143	❌ 143 total	❌ Push
Ole Miss vs Iowa St	Iowa St -5.5	❌ Iowa St 78–91	❌ Loss	Under 145.5	❌ 169 total	❌ Loss
New Mexico vs Michigan St	New Mexico +7.5	❌ MSU 71–63	✅ Win	Under 148.5	✅ 134 total	✅ Win
Oregon vs Arizona	Oregon +3.5	✅ Arizona 87–83	❌ Loss	Under 152.5	❌ 170 total	❌ Loss

📈 Model Accuracy Summary

Category	Record
Spread Picks	✅ 5 – ❌ 3
Total Picks	✅ 3 – ❌ 4 – ➖ 1 (Push)
Overall	✅ 8 – ❌ 7 – ➖ 1